The Big Question

Why do people support Trump?

Week after week, new polls come in. They tell the same story. The race is a dead heat. I’m skeptical about polls in general. They have become propaganda tools. They are done by lazy people and have errors in them. They don’t capture shifts in voting patterns. After the passage of NAFTA in the 1990s, blue-collar workers shifted to the extreme left as well as to the right. So much so that the political spectrum in America is no longer a clean, horizonal line going from the left to the right. Instead, it looks like a horseshoe. There is also a widening gender gap. The divergence in political views between young men and young women has never been greater. When you have such major transformations under way, it is near impossible for polls to get it right. If you’re a talking head, it’s safe to portray the race as a close one.

Kamala Harris went on Fox News earlier this week to speak to Bret Baier. Rumor has it she might go on Joe Rogan’s podcast too. Why did she risk being mauled in the dragon’s den? There are two ways to spin this. The first explanation is that the Harris campaign believes that they are behind Trump. So much so that they felt the need to take risks. The other way to spin it is that Harris has the Democratic base in the bag and is going for the jugular, by taking on Fox News and stealing some Republican votes. Both are plausible. I personally think it is the latter.

I think it was a smart decision to go on Fox News. If she had been mauled, she’d have got sympathy. If she had slain the dragon, she’d have won admiration. As things turned out, it fell somewhere in the middle. She got some admiration and some sympathy. She held her own. There was little to no mauling. She landed a few blows on the dragon but didn’t quite slay it. She achieved what I think she set out to do: to show the Republicans that she was willing to talk to them. And, to let them know what the rest of America really thinks of Donald Trump: that he is unfit for office. In these situations, the act is the message itself.

What caught my attention is a question Baier asked Harris: “If what you say (that Trump is unfit and unstable) is true, then why are so many people supporting him?” Harris wasn’t given a chance to answer the question. Baier kept talking over her. But it’s a great question. To answer it, we must rewind to 2016.

In 2016, there were three groups of people who supported Trump. The first group of Trump supporters were disenfranchised, blue collar workers of all ages, overwhelmingly male. This is the core MAGA group. The second group was the Christian evangelicals. In Trump, they saw a mercenary they could hire to defend the Christian faith in America. It was a good bet. Trump appointed three judges to the Supreme Court who were handpicked to overturn abortion protection. The third group was the mainstream Republicans. This group was taken by surprise when Trump beat Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush to win the nomination. They didn’t have time to react. On the other side was Hillary Clinton, whom they reviled. It was a confusing year for Republican voters, who have been long conditioned to not vote for “the enemy.” All of this added up to a narrow win for Trump.

By 2020, Republicans had seen Trump in power. The core MAGA become more buoyant than ever. I don’t believe their numbers grew, but their conviction solidified into mass hypnosis right through Covid and then the January 6 insurrection. The evangelicals were still with Trump, but their fever broke after their favorite judges were nominated. Maybe they weren’t as enthusiastic in 2020 as in 2016 because they got what they wanted out of Trump. Trump lost Georgia and Arizona in the Sun Belt, the stronghold of evangelicals. In the meanwhile, the mainstream Republicans had had some time to reflect on Trump. A sliver of male Republicans in the Midwest saw him as unstable, corrupt and incompetent. They defected and voted for Biden, making a crucial difference in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

What does this look like in 2024?

The core MAGA group is as strong as ever. These are his people. They show up in his rallies. They wear the t-shirts and flaunt the bumper stickers. Contrary to expectations, the MAGA crowd does not want anything from Trump. They just want him to burn the system to the ground. Hate for the system shows up as love for Trump. He can dance for 45 minutes without speaking for all they care. They will sit through it. Their numbers are still strong, but their enthusiasm appears to be waning. Trump’s rallies have become smaller in 2024. Evangelicals too are solidly in Trump’s camp. While he got the job done, they have no more use for him. They may even despise each other now. Trump blamed them for losing Georgia last time. The third group, mainstream Republicans, have plenty of information on Trump now. They have had eight years to absorb it. A majority of this group will stay with him because they do NOT like to lose. They will simply not vote for the other side. Just as I will never vote for a Republican as long as I live. We’ve all been radicalized in some way. Having said that, Trump’s refusal to leave peacefully in 2020 is a deal breaker for some Republicans. The overturn of Roe v Wade has alienated a significant sliver of Republican women. The ranks of disgruntled Republicans have grown to a sizable number in 2024. Some will vote for Harris. Many won’t. In either case, Trump will get one less vote. I don’t believe this is reflected in polls. When the ranks of disgruntled Democrats swelled in 2016, few saw it coming.

It's not hard to see why Trump enjoys strong support despite everything. The core MAGA group, about half his base, is unfazed by anything he says or does. They would love to see Dictator Trump rule America. Evangelicals will continue to show up in the Trump column. A large majority of mainstream Republicans will hold their nose and stay with him, hoping that he won’t be around the next time. They like Nikki Haley better but she couldn’t get the job done. A small but significant (maybe 5-7%) of Trump voters will most certainly defect. They are probably under-represented in the polls.

There are two ways to win an election. You can get more votes. Or your opponent can lose more votes. Both works. Compared to 2020, it looks like Trump will lose more votes and Harris will win more.

Two weeks to go, I’d still rather be her than him.

Have a good weekend!