July 2023 – part 2

It’s time to step down, Joe Biden.

The 2024 Presidential elections are still over 15 months away. It’s too early to call anything but it’s not looking good for Biden.

There is some good news. Let’s get this out of the way before we confront reality. Polls show Biden beating Trump narrowly in a straight fight. It’s not clear how he’ll fare against a non-Trump opponent. Chances are he’ll lose. The good news for Biden, if you can call it that, is Trump is leading by a mile among Republican voters and will likely be their nominee.

So, if it’s a straight up contest between Biden and Trump, Joe might just eke out a win. Then again, he might not.

The reason is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Two Democrats are running against their President in the primaries this year. It’s very unusual for a sitting President to be challenged. Of the two, Robert F Kennedy Jr (son of Bobby and nephew of Jack) is polling a consistent 20% among Democrat voters. He is also attracting sizable support from Independents and Republicans, making for what must be one of the strangest candidacies in a while. Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey from Silicon Valley have thrown their weight behind Bobby Jr. Tucker Carlson seems to like him. Trump himself has called Bobby Jr “a good guy.”

RFK Jr has been getting the most attention from media for his so-called “anti-vax” position. For the record, he’s not an anti-vax-er. His kids are vaccinated. He got himself vaxed during Covid. The man is not averse to jabs. He is calling for regulation of vaccines much the same way drugs are regulated. Bobby Jr has a remarkable 30 year track record on the environmental front, crusading for clean water and against chemical pollution. He’s anti -war, anti-censorship and pro Bitcoin. I can see why the tech billionaires like him. Heck, I like him too. He just might be the leader America needs now, someone who can get support from both sides of the political spectrum.

But then, the DNC has already decided that Biden is our guy and Bobby Jr’s high approval ratings is turning out to be very inconvenient. He’s the only candidate from either party to have a net positive approval rating. In other words, more people approve of him than disapprove. In Biden’s and Trump’s cases, it is the exact opposite. More voters disapprove of these two than approve of them. In short, few want a Biden v Trump contest. There are folks like RFK Jr who are tapping into this, and mainstream media does not like this.

What is happening today is reminiscent of 1968. That year, Lyndon Johnson, the sitting President, was challenged by a fellow Democrat in the primary. The circumstances then were similar to today. There was an unpopular President in the White House. There was a war (in Vietnam). The nation was polarized over civil rights. After losing the first primary in New Hampshite, LBJ stepped down and decided to not seek re-election. His opponent went on sweep the primaries and would have been nominated, if he had not been assassinated. That man was Bobby Kennedy, RFK Jr’s father. History is unlikely to repeat itself. For one, it’s not the same party as it was in 1968. Democrat voters don’t seem troubled by the war in Ukraine, and don’t seem to disapprove of Biden’s inability or reluctance to sue for peace. In fact, many seem to be cheering him on. The Democratic Party of yore was once anti-war, anti-pharma, and anti-censorship. The tables have turned. Today, it’s a Tucker Carlson or a libertarian Elon Musk who is more likely to rail against censorship and war. It’s more likely a Republican candidate to view big pharma, lockdowns, and vaccines with suspicion. RFK Jr is an old school Democrat. He’s a Kennedy, who are America’s royalty and loyal Democrats. This could explain why he’s tapping into the shrinking group of old school Democrats (like me), and also quite a few in the Republican and Libertarian camps. It does make for strange bedfellows, I must say.

Coming back to Biden’s prospects – I think it seems to be a foregone conclusion that he will be the party’s nominee. In that case, it’s quite possible that a decent chunk of RFK Jr’s Democrat voters base might either swing over and vote for Trump or just stay at home. If that happens, it will be 2016 all over again, and Trump will likely be our next President.

There is however another scenario, which IMO is the most likely one. If the contest ends up between Biden and Trump, which it looks very much to be the case, I believe that it almost guarantees that there will an independent or third party candidate in the General Elections. I am going to go out on a limb and guess that Joe Manchin will run against Biden and Trump. Till date, Manchin has consistently NOT ruled out the possibility of a run. By Super Tuesday next year, once it becomes apparent that it’s Biden v Trump, Manchin will likely leave the Democratic Party and declare his intention to run. If Joe Manchin enters the race, it will be all but over for Biden.

The “anyone but Biden or Trump” sentiment is running high in America now. Polls show a “no name” third-party ticket garnering nearly 30% of votes from both sides. With a name like Manchin on it, it will do more damage to Biden than Trump. It is very possible that this ticket might even win a few states. If Joe Manchin wins a few states, then for the first time in US elections history, we may not have a winner on Election Day. None of the candidates might win the 268 electoral college votes needed for a majority. In this event, the United States House of Representatives will be called upon to select our next President, practically guaranteeing Donald Trump another term. I’ve learned to expect the unexpected in US presidential elections now.

Like I said, it’s not looking good for Biden. I am an optimist, but I don’t see a path to victory for him. The chances are he will lose narrowly to Trump in a straight fight or be trounced in a three way with an independent candidate. The choice is his to make. He can step down now and leave with his dignity and reputation intact. Or he can leave in January 2025, in tatters and tears with the dubious distinction of losing to a man indicted by his own administration.

If I were him, I’d read the tea leaves and exit now. Stepping down now will allow a fresh, young and new Democratic candidate to step in, deflect criticism for lockdowns and inflation, and take credit for just the good stuff. Avoiding a Biden v Trump scenario will very likely dissuade the likes of Joe Manchin from entering the fray.

Someone like Newsom may just be what the party needs now. He’s charismatic, punchy, and articulate. The ladies like him. He is the sitting Governor of the sixth largest economy in the world. And he is NOT 80 years old. He is the perfect antidote to Trump and DeSantis. He’s the balm that Bobby Jr’s people might accept. It makes sense all around. It’s as plain as day to me. I’d hate to say I told you so on Election Day.

Now, who wants to tell Joe?

Have a great week ahead. God save the Queen, man.