Battle of the Sexes
It’s the girls versus the boys
Election Day is just three days away on Tuesday and I’ve got two predictions. The first is Trump will declare victory on Monday itself. The other is Kamala Harris will win in a landslide. I expect her to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada among the battleground states. I also believe that Trump is going to lose the popular vote by a record margin. I expect the Senate to go to the Republicans, and the House looks genuinely to be a toss-up, with a slight edge to the Dems.
There are still lots of questions, at this late juncture.
Will more black men and Latino men vote for Trump this time because they can’t get behind a woman? Most likely yes. It’s just the way it is. There are many men - white, black, brown and Latino - who will simply not vote for a woman. There is nothing Kamala Harris can do about it.
Will Muslim Americans in the Detroit area punish the Democrats for the perceived lack of support for Gazans? For sure, some will. There is a lot of anger among Arab Americans, most of it misdirected in my opinion. Some will vote for Trump. Some will vote for third-party candidates. My guess is a majority will still vote for Harris. Also, I don’t think the Arab American vote bank is large enough to make a difference in this election. Biden won Michigan by over 150,000 votes last time. There aren’t enough Muslim Americans in Michigan to swing the result. Even a large shift won’t make or break anything.
Will the white Republican men who voted for Biden in 2020 vote for Harris in 2024? White Republican men switching over were crucial to Biden’s victory in 2020. This year, many of them will likely switch back to Trump. Voting for a Black woman may be a bridge too far for these men.
Will suburban white women show up for Harris? They showed up in 2022 during the midterm elections, stopping a widely predicted red wave in its tracks. There are signs that a similar surge is in the offing this year as well. This group is by far the largest single demographic. It’s half the country. Even small shifts will make a seismic difference.
In other words, Harris must make up whatever support she loses among men (Black, Latino, Republicans) with votes she gains from white Republican women. It is going to be girls versus boys this time, folks. Harris leads Trump by 15 points among women. He leads her by 7 points among men. She has made vigorous attempts to win over Black and Latino men. We don’t know if it’s working. Trump, on the other hand, has actively alienated women. If this race splits down gender lines, my guess is she will win handily.
Of course, I don’t know any of this for sure. It’s a vibe some of us are feeling. We’ll have to wait till Tuesday or Wednesday morning to find out. I hope we will have a record turnout on both sides. I hope Kamala Harris wins by a mile, so there is little doubt as to who won. I hope this is the last time we see Donald Trump in any election.
Have a good weekend!